What Was Michigan’s Winter Weather Like Last Time It Had A Strong El Niño?
Back in September, the Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA) released its prediction of what kind of winter Michigan could face as the coldest time of year takes over. While last winter we saw record-low temperatures, this winter is forecast to be a "wet and rainy" couple of months.
While long-range forecasts like this should be taken with a grain of salt, the belief that this winter will be on the warm side is near universal because the National Weather Service expects a very strong El Niño.
This means warm air from the west is carried across the country by the jet stream, pushing storm systems away and keeping temperatures warmer and snow on the lighter end. For reference, here's how things went last time a strong El Niño hit West Michigan back in 2015-16.
Grand Rapids' Last Strong El Niño: 2015-16
During the 2015-16 winter, temperatures were well above average for most of December and much of February, with only January seeing mostly near-average temperatures.
December 13th, 14th, 23rd, and 24th set records for the hottest December dates, with highs of 61°F, 59°F, 60°F, and 59°F, respectively.
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This winter's snowfall was well below average. Total snowfall was 38 inches, while the average is 60 inches.
This weather pattern largely matches historical data. The National Weather Service did a complete breakdown of the previous 11 times Michigan experienced El Niños, and while it focuses on Southeast Michigan, West Michigan's stats are visible as well.
As always, weather is largely unpredictable, but this is likely one of the few times you can count on meteorologists to be right. After all, August was Earth's hottest month on record, and temps have remained above average since. The OFA predicts a more average January, so let's cross our fingers for at least one snowy month.
Annual Snowfall Totals In Grand Rapids, MI Since 2000
Gallery Credit: Tommy McNeill
